Jaunted

On Tuesday, Delta Air Lines (DAL), the world's largest airline, said it would post a 2009 net loss of around $1.5 billion, or $1.1 billion excluding expected one-time accounting items. IATA stuck to its earlier forecast that airlines worldwide will lose $11 billion this year. In 2010, the IATA expects global passenger traffic to increase 4.5% over this year. But since the economic collapse last fall, carriers have slashed fares to woo travelers, depressing potential profits. And fuel prices are expected to shoot up, with an average barrel of oil projected to cost $75 in 2010, as compared with $61.80 this year, the IATA says.

Even the IATA numbers, though, indicate that "the worst is likely behind us." That's a pretty sobering perspective on what airlines have been going through in the last few years. It almost makes you take pity on harried airline execs. Almost.

The real concern is that things will never go back to the way they were. If a permanently weakened dollar, long-term Middle East turmoil, and sheer resource depletion keep energy prices high, the old hub-and-spoke model used by major airlines might simply stay unsustainable. A cascade of airline collapses would then take an immediate toll on regional airports—look what happened when US Airways bailed out of Pittsburgh—and then no one really knows what happens, but it's nothing good. Happy Thursday!

[Photo: traed mawr / Flickr]

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