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Airfares Plummeting, Airlines Sinking Faster Than Ever

October 30, 2009 at 10:24 AM | by Omri | 0 Comments

If you're trying to figure out why airlines like American keep reporting mindblowing revenue declines over 2008, the airfare figures for last quarter are out. How desperate were airlines to get any kind of passenger at any kind of price? Desperate enough to drop their prices to 1998 levels.

That means that airlines are more skittish about their current market position than they were after 9/11. As a reminder, that was a terrorist act which involved airplanes and therefore shook people's confidence in airplanes which are the things that airline companies fly. The price dip over the last few months has been worse than that, pointing to an industry that's out of options to get people buying tickets.

Now for a more detailed explanation:

The average domestic fare in the second quarter was nearly identical to ticket prices during that period in 1998, according to statistics released Wednesday. The average fare for a domestic trip from April to June was $301, down 13% from a year earlier and the steepest year-over-year dip in nearly 15 years... Before this year, the biggest year-over-year drop was between the fourth quarter of 2000 and the fourth quarter of 2001, after the terror attacks of Sept. 11. The average price of a domestic trip slipped 11.8% then, the bureau says.

Part of the overall price decline is the recession, but only a part. Other factors include the mainstreaming of broadband, which enables travel-reducing teleconferencing, and market pressures created by low-cost carriers. This is where it gets really bad. Even if the economy improves and people start flying again—in industry-speak, even if volume stabilizes—prices will still stay relatively low because of these other issues. That's potentially good for consumers but it's absolutely disastrous for airline companies coping with high oil prices and constant infrastructure costs.

We're rapidly approaching a point where the optimistic evaluation is that things will get worse before they get better, simply because no one's exactly sure what it's going to take for them to get better.

[Photo: Mike Scalora / Wiki Commons]

Related Stories:
· WRAPUP 2-Price pressures ground airline sector recovery hopes [Reuters]
· Airlines Coverage [Jaunted]
· Airline News [Jaunted]

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